I've been keeping an eye on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's COVID-19 projection website.

It's interactive and informative, if you can trust the data. I'm taking it with a grain of salt because we just don't know enough about the virus to make any sound projections. But it's something and I need something.

So I turned to the COVID-19 Projection site, specifically the Tennessee projections. Last week when Gov. Bill Lee urged us to stay home, it projected we would peak April 19 with as many as 5,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in need of hospitalization and 130-some deaths PER DAY and a peak of April 26. That's mostly because all of our medical resources (hospital rooms, ICU beds, and ventilators) would be used up. The data projected a 1,000 patient shortfalls in ICU beds.

That's bleak. 

Since Lee issued the "I really meant it" Stay-at-home order on April 2, we are projected to peak April 15 with around 1,200 hospitalized cases, 245 ICU beds needed and 208 ventilators. This reduces the number of projected death to around 25 per day on April 18.

It still sucks, but not nearly as bad.

Anyway, it made me feel better about the future. So much so, I put in a curb-side pick-up order for tomatoes at Martin's Home and Garden. Once I get mine, feel free to order yours through its website.

Across the nation, IHME is predicting the need for approximately 25,000 ventilators over the next several weeks. Estimates of need for ventilators have primarily been revised downward because of the much larger datasets on US practice patterns for the caring of COVID-19 patients. Predicted excess demand for ICU beds has also been revised downward, with an estimated 16,323-bed shortage.

As for the mortality rate, IHME forecasts 81,766 deaths, with a range between 49,431 and 136,401. For Tennessee the projection is 587 death in a range from 390 to 910 death. Data in the early days of the epidemic in each state can inform the trajectory of the epidemic, whether it will follow a pattern of rapid increase as in New York, or much slower increase as in Washington. 

The estimated peak day for the nation, the modeling indicated, is April 16, with a projected 3,130 deaths nationwide on that day.

The projections are based on an extensive range of information and sources, including: Local governments, national governments, and the World Health Organization; Government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies; Data from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital bed and ICU capacity and average annual utilization of these services by state; Data on COVID-19-related demand for ICU services in the U.S.; and Age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea, and the U.S.

In other news

No more parks (temporarily)

Tennessee closed all of its 56 state parks and natural areas. The closure is temporary and will only last 10 days starting Saturday, April 4.

“We decided to close the parks in support of Governor Lee’s Executive Order 23,” state Department of Environment and Conservation Commissioner David Salyers said in a release posted on the Tennessee Journal site. “The health and safety of Tennessee citizens is all of our top priority right now.”

La Vergne closes drive-thrus

La Vergne Mayor Jason Cole and city administration are putting a modified schedule into effect to allow the city to operate with minimal staff. The modified schedule began Monday, April 6 and continue through Tuesday, April 14 at which time staff will reevaluate the modified schedules.

Staff will operate on an as-needed basis to conduct necessary city business. Other employees will report to work when needed or on a modified schedule that works best for their department.

If you need to conduct business with La Vergne, property taxes, city court and water bills can all be paid online at LaVergneTN.gov. Residents can also drop off cash, check or money orders to the drive-thru drop box.

Tuesday’s Board of Mayor and Aldermen meeting is to continue as scheduled, however, public access to the meeting will be very limited and attendance is discouraged due to the Safer at Home declaration. We are asking anyone who is interested in attending to watch our livestream on YouTube or on our local Channel 3 beginning at 7:00 p.m. The meeting video will also be posted on YouTube after the conclusion of the meeting.

For more information, visit LaVergneTN.gov/502/COVID-19-Response. Residents can also sign up for updates at http://bit.ly/2EFlyMZ. Residents can also text “RCCOVID” to 888777 to opt-in for COVID-19 updates from #AlertRutherford.

COVID-19 Reported Cases in Tennessee

Medical Professional Responders are needed. Click here to register with the State of Tennessee Medical Reserve Corps Program. Medical and Non-medical support is needed.

To donate masks, email COVID.PPEDONATIONS@tn.gov or check TEMA's site for private sector PPE donations.

As of 2 p.m. April 6: